Join the club for FREE to access the whole archive and other member benefits.

Probability of Living Forever

Peak mortality predicted for 2053
Published 29-May-2013
Up to > Home > Blog > 2013

This is my first draft of calculating the chances of living forever - no doubt it will be updated many times - and I'm happy to say I've got a 1 in 10 chance even as a middle aged man. This is a first guess based on assuming 20 years before all the big killers are blighted, then another twenty to slow aging down to zero. This introduces the concept of physiological age - i.e. the equivalent age of my body rather than the number of years I have lived.

Using the UK mortality rates, which increase with (physiological) age - after 20 years even though I'm unlikely to die of disease, old age has crept up to reduce the chance of me surviving for another year to 97% and by the time life extension technology as stopped aging entirely I'll have a physiological age of 72 (though enjoyed 83 years by then) which means only a 94% of surviving each year. If life extension technology then turns into rejuvenation technology then I could bring my physiological age back to to 30-something (120 years) where I'm more likely to die from an accident than my age.

Here is the table of figures - I'll annotate and provide sources etc over time.

chances of being alive table

Mentioned in this blog post:

Click on resource name for more details.

Adrian Cull

Longevity advocate - founder of the Live Forever Club and author of the Live Forever Manual

Heart muscle aging reversed (in mice)

Scanadu Scout Medical Tricorder indiegogo project

Related Blog Posts

Where were the UK longevity companies and researchers at Dublin summit?
30-Aug-2023

Where were the UK longevity companies and researchers at Dublin summit?

Absolute numbers look good, but for the size and proximity of the venue, it could have done better

Highlights from Longevity Summit Dublin 2023
24-Aug-2023

Highlights from Longevity Summit Dublin 2023

Key points and slides from the leading longevity conference hosted by Aubrey de Grey

Clock Foundation’s GrimAge Biological Age Test Review
29-May-2023

Clock Foundation’s GrimAge Biological Age Test Review

Epigenetic age test provides information beyond biological age

Do telomere length tests really reveal your biological age?
22-Aug-2022

Do telomere length tests really reveal your biological age?

Rate of shortening, shape and method of testing are all important factors

GlycanAge Biological Age Test Review
01-Jul-2022

GlycanAge Biological Age Test Review

What can your glycome tell you about your true age?