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Probability of Living Forever

This is my first draft of calculating the chances of living forever - no doubt it will be updated many times - and I'm happy to say I've got a 1 in 10 chance even as a middle aged man. This is a first guess based on assuming 20 years before all the big killers are blighted, then another twenty to slow aging down to zero. This introduces the concept of physiological age - i.e. the equivalent age of my body rather than the number of years I have lived.

Using the UK mortality rates, which increase with (physiological) age - after 20 years even though I'm unlikely to die of disease, old age has crept up to reduce the chance of me surviving for another year to 97% and by the time life extension technology as stopped aging entirely I'll have a physiological age of 72 (though enjoyed 83 years by then) which means only a 94% of surviving each year. If life extension technology then turns into rejuvenation technology then I could bring my physiological age back to to 30-something (120 years) where I'm more likely to die from an accident than my age.

Here is the table of figures - I'll annotate and provide sources etc over time.

chances of being alive table

Mentioned in this blog post:

Tap on icon for description, click on resource name for more details.

Advocate

Founder of Live Forever Club. Author of the Live Forever Manual.

Heart muscle aging reversed (in mice)

Scanadu Scout Medical Tricorder indiegogo project

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