Key points from article :
The U.S. is projected to experience more deaths than births by 2033, according to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) 2025 population report, moving up its prior estimate from 2040.
The report forecasts slower population growth, with the population reaching 350 million in 2025 and 372 million by 2054, lower than last year’s estimate of 383 million. The growth rate is expected to decline significantly, averaging 0.2% annually over the next three decades, compared to 0.9% growth from 1975 to 2024. Between 2025 and 2035, growth is projected at 0.4% annually, slowing to just 0.1% by 2055.
The CBO attributes this slowdown to multiple factors, including declining fertility rates, an aging population, and reduced immigration levels. President Biden’s 2024 executive orders, which lowered net immigration projections, have further impacted these figures. Immigration remains critical to population growth, as fertility rates are not sufficient to sustain generational replacement. Without immigration, the population is expected to begin shrinking by 2033.
This updated demographic outlook highlights long-term challenges for the U.S., including sustaining workforce levels and economic growth amid a rapidly aging population and declining birth rates. Immigration policies are anticipated to play a pivotal role in shaping future population trends.
