Key points from article :
A new long-term study by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future warns that South Korea’s population could shrink by up to 85% over the next 100 years, falling from around 52 million today to as low as 7.53 million by 2125 if current demographic trends persist. Using a well-established demographic forecasting method called the cohort component model, the researchers considered birth rates, mortality, and immigration patterns to arrive at various future scenarios — all of which indicate significant population decline.
Even in the most optimistic projection, the population would drop to just under 16 million, with the median estimate settling at around 11.15 million by 2125. The decline is not just due to lower birth rates but is worsened by a shrinking base of young people, leading to fewer parents in the future. By 2075, the population could decrease by 30%, then decline by more than half over the next 50 years. The country's age structure would shift dramatically, resembling a “cobra” with a top-heavy distribution dominated by the elderly.
The study also highlighted the rising economic pressures on young adults, based on analysis of 60,000 social media posts. Many in their 20s to 40s now place a greater emphasis on financial stability and housing than on love or family life when considering marriage or children. Concerns about affordability and work-life balance are discouraging many from starting families, showing how economic realities are directly shaping private decisions.
To counteract this demographic crisis, the institute recommends major policy reforms, including enhanced child-rearing support, raising the retirement age, improving employment opportunities for older adults, and overhauling immigration policies. Importantly, it urges a shift in economic focus from population growth to productivity, signaling that South Korea must adapt quickly to avoid the social and economic strains of an “inverted pyramid” society, where too few working-age individuals support a rapidly aging population.
