Join the club for FREE to access the whole archive and other member benefits.

Shrinking population, with greater proportion being elderly, could rock China's economy


Key points from article :

“China’s population is expected to peak at 1.4bn in 2024/25 and then it will almost halve by the end of the century,” says Pushpin Singh, of the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

By 2050, there will be a “dependency ratio” of 71 under 15s or over 64s for every 100 working age adults.

Other advanced economies have the same problem but the issue has been exacerbated by China’s one child policy.

“It is easier to limit growth in population by repressive means. It is much more difficult to get people to have more children by the order of the Government," says Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS.

Hard to pivot to a consumer led economy if they are supporting elderly relatives.

Demand for housing between 2025 and 2030 will be half what it was in the five years before the pandemic.

China’s population could peak at 1.4bn in 2025 then almost drop by half by the end of the century

Mentioned in this article:

Click on resource name for more details.

Pushpin Singh

Economist at Cebr

Steve Tsang

Political scientist and historian, Director of the SOAS China Institute at SOAS University of London