Key points from article :
Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, a fellow at the UK-based Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, argues in his paper that industrial civilization is nearing an inevitable decline. He states that rapid decline may derail humanity's potential transition into a more advanced, sustainable civilization based on clean energy and decentralized systems. His research, published in Foresight, suggests that civilizations go through a four-stage cycle: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. The current decline is largely due to authoritarian politics, climate change, and a decrease in energy returns on investment.
Ahmed emphasizes that clean energy and new technologies like AI, 3D printing, and lab-grown agriculture could create a sustainable, resource-abundant future. However, these innovations must be governed by new systems, not the outdated hierarchies that dominate today's industrial world. His theory predicts a conflict between emerging systems and the old industrial model, which could lead to political disruptions and global crises. He warns that if humanity fails to evolve its governance structures, the potential for collapse increases.
Support for Ahmed’s views comes from experts like Gaya Herrington, vice president at Schneider Electric, who highlights the urgency of action within the next five years to secure the well-being of future generations. Ahmed’s analysis also aligns with warnings from other scientists, such as Johan Rockström, who highlighted that humanity has crossed several planetary boundaries, signaling a deteriorating environment. As global warming accelerates, achieving net-zero emissions by 2100 is crucial to avoid catastrophic climate tipping points.
Ahmed's argument extends to the broader societal context, suggesting that the rise of authoritarian governments could worsen these challenges. His research points to a future where either technological advancements lead to a "superabundant" society or, if mishandled, bring about our downfall.
The paper’s conclusion is a call for urgent, coordinated action to prevent a collapse that could devastate the human race. The future, as Ahmed sees it, hinges on humanity’s ability to adapt quickly and responsibly to emerging technologies and environmental crises.
The study is published in the journal Foresight.
