In this episode, Matt and Nick delve into a recent Nature Aging paper that questions the feasibility of radical life extension in the 21st century. They discuss key issues in the longevity industry, including realistic goals, past technological predictions, and trends in lifespan. Together, they explore what these findings might mean for the future of human longevity.

Key Points:

The podcast explores recent research suggesting that radical life extension may be limited without breakthroughs in ageing science. Historical gains from improved public health have plateaued, indicating the need to tackle ageing itself to further extend human lifespan.

• Historical Lifespan Gains: Human life expectancy dramatically increased from the mid-19th century to the 20th century due to reduced child mortality and improved public health measures, but this trend has since slowed.
• Defining Radical Life Extension: The paper defines “radical life extension” as an increase of three years in life expectancy per decade, which contrasts with more extreme views in the longevity community.
• Current Life Expectancy Limits: The study suggests we may be reaching a “soft limit” to life expectancy increases, with data showing slowed gains in recent decades.
• Challenges in Extending Lifespan: Achieving additional years of life expectancy now requires reducing mortality by 10-20%, a challenging task given advances in healthcare already in place.
• Focus on Biology of Ageing: Experts argue that future gains in life expectancy would require breakthroughs in targeting the biology of ageing rather than only treating individual diseases.
• Future Prospects: While the idea of reaching 150 years remains unlikely with current technology, focusing resources on ageing research could potentially push life expectancy beyond today’s soft limits.