Key points from article :
The UK is approaching a major demographic shift, according to a new report from the Resolution Foundation. The think tank warns that 2026 is likely to mark the start of a “new era” in which deaths consistently outnumber births, reversing a pattern that has held for more than a century. The analysis, presented in the New Year Outlook 2026 and co-authored by Greg Thwaites and Ruth Curtice, suggests that without immigration, the UK’s population would begin to shrink.
Falling birth rates are central to this change. Fertility in England and Wales dropped to a record low of 1.4 children per woman in 2024, with UK-wide rates declining faster than in any other G7 country. Financial pressures are a major factor, with nearly half of adults delaying or deciding against having children. The report predicts that by the mid-2040s, deaths could exceed births by around 100,000 a year.
The consequences could be far-reaching. A smaller working-age population would make it harder to fund pensions, healthcare, and social care, potentially leading to higher taxes and tougher political choices. Although child poverty is expected to fall following the removal of the two-child benefit cap, the Resolution Foundation forecasts weak income growth and fragile living standards overall.
Immigration is expected to become the main driver of population growth, but net migration is already falling sharply from recent highs, adding further uncertainty. The report concludes that the UK is not facing an immediate crisis, but a slow, consequential transition—one that will demand careful policy choices if the country is to manage aging, economic growth, and public finances in the decades ahead.
