Key points from article :
A new study from the University of Liverpool, in collaboration with The Health Foundation, has revealed the long-term health benefits that could result from nationwide improvements in everyday habits such as diet, exercise, and smoking. Published in Nature Communications and led by Dr Chris Kypridemos, the research used computer modelling of data from 1.5 million adults in England to forecast the impact of healthier lifestyles on the population’s wellbeing between 2023 and 2043. The results show that even modest changes in behaviour could substantially reduce chronic illness, improving both life expectancy and quality of life for millions.
The study identified obesity, smoking, and high blood pressure as the leading contributors to the rising burden of long-term disease, including heart conditions, diabetes, and cancer. In an optimistic scenario where the population achieved the healthiest levels across eight key risk factors, more than five million years of serious illness could be prevented or delayed by 2043, with illness prevalence dropping from 30% to 28%. Even a modest 10% improvement would still prevent or postpone about one million years lived with illness. The benefits would continue to increase beyond 2043, showing that preventive action taken now would yield health gains for decades.
The researchers also found that health improvements would not be distributed equally across society. Reducing obesity would have the greatest impact in disadvantaged communities, while lowering blood pressure would benefit wealthier populations more. Dr Kypridemos emphasised that meaningful progress requires bold, society-wide policies rather than relying solely on individual behaviour change — including better food environments, tobacco control, and tackling inequality.
According to co-authors Dr Anna Head and Dr Toby Watt, effective prevention policies could ease NHS pressure, help people stay healthier and in work longer, and deliver major economic benefits. The team is now developing further models that incorporate post-pandemic data to design practical, long-term strategies that support both public health and social equity.
