Key points from article :
A new analysis from the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk warns that today’s interconnected and unequal global society may face collapse if inequality is not reduced. The research, published in The Guardian and based on a study of 5,000 years of human history, shows that more than 400 past societies fell because of elites chasing wealth, power, and status.
The study argues that civilizations—called “Goliaths” here—depend on three fuels: grain for easy taxation, weapons monopolized by elites, and limited land that prevents escape. These conditions allowed domination but also planted the seeds of collapse.
Researchers note that collapse in the past often freed ordinary people from elite control, sometimes improving health and life quality. But today, because societies are globally connected, any collapse would be worldwide and far more devastating.
Modern risks—such as nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, climate change, and engineered pandemics—make the situation more dangerous than in previous centuries. The report stresses that small, wealthy groups, not humanity as a whole, are driving these risks.
The authors suggest that prevention requires genuine democracy, citizen-led decision-making, and wealth limits to curb elite dominance. They argue that humans are naturally cooperative and capable of building fairer societies if inequality is addressed.
Despite these possibilities, the researchers remain cautious, warning that without dramatic social and political change, the most likely future outcome is global self-destruction.
