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The study says the population is likely to peak sooner and lower than expected with beneficial results – but the environment is a priority.
If governments pursue progressive social policies, the world population could fall to about 6 billion by 2100, the study predicted.
The new forecasts are good news for the global environment.
Declining populations can also create new problems, such as a shrinking workforce and greater stress on healthcare associated with an ageing society.
“This gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off ... which are bigger problems than population.” Ben Callegari, study author said.
The method incorporates social and economic factors that have a proven impact on birthrate, such as raising education levels, particularly for women, and improving income.
“By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions are about 90% lower than they were in 2020 and are still falling,” the report stated.
The study was commissioned by the Club of Rome.