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$200 billion bet on drug that could make us all live better, longer

Clinical trials for the ageing drug could potentially be completed in 3-6 years

09-Dec-2023

Key points from article :

An "ageing drug" that extends healthy lifespan could be the biggest-selling drug ever, with a peak annual revenue of $150-$200 billion, surpassing giants like Lipitor and Keytruda.

Clinical trials for such a drug could be as short as 3-6 years and cost $50-$100 million, similar to standard Phase III trials.

Approval for treating age-related diseases in dogs has already been achieved.

The addressable market in the US alone is estimated at 73-83 million people between 2030 and 2045, with potential expansion to populations over 40.

Two primary revenue streams are identified: reimbursement by insurers and direct-to-consumer (DTC) cash-pay models.

The reimbursement model is expected to dominate due to lower prices and wider accessibility.

The monthly price is estimated at $216 for the reimbursement model and $618 for the cash-pay model.

Adoption is expected to increase gradually, with a maximum penetration rate of 25-50% over 15 years, depending on patient adherence and marketing strategies.

Topics mentioned on this page:
Policy, Big Pharma
$200 billion bet on drug that could make us all live better, longer