Hopefully technology will one day be able to eliminate potential killers before they start to spread – but until then its necessary to be vigilant to the pandemics that don’t differentiate between those with a plan to live forever and those without.

I’ll add more individual pages – but for now the looming pandemic is Ebola.

What’s the chance of a deadly disease annihilating the world’s population? Some of the key factors are:

  1. ease of transmission – by contact or air
  2. is it infectious before symptons so that public health measures can be used?
  3. how deadly is it? lots of novel flus are no worse than seasonal ones
  4. can it be prevented or treated?


Homeland Security Digital Library – Pandemics and Epidemics
Including response plans for avian influenza, Ebola and Zika virus

Latest News

Pandemic could kill 900 million people – Metro – 30-Jul-2018
John Hopkins University simulated the spread of a new illness.
Clade X is a theoretical new type of parainfluenza.
Pathogen wasn’t markedly more dangerous than SARS.
American politicians ran an exercise as if a virus was released.
Estimates that 10% of the world’s population would perish.

Nipah virus outbreak in India contained – Times of India – 9-Jun-2018
17 deaths due to the virus reported from Kerala, India.
No fresh cases of infection filed.
Family members of those affected were kept in isolation.
Travellers should avoid Kozhikode, Malappuram, Wayanad and Kannur.

Could dog flu be the next pandemic? – Medical News Today – 6-Jun-2018
Influenza virus can jump from pigs to canines.
Viruses in dogs and horses have less viral genetic diversity.
5 years ago an avian flu virus was found in farmed dogs in China.
H1N1, H3N2, and H3N8 in dogs are starting to interact with each other.
Culling domestic dogs to prevent an outbreak would be an unpopular solution.

Here’s What the Next Pandemic Pathogen Might Look Like – Live Science – 12-May-2018
Pathogens like Ebola and Zika are unlikely to cause a global pandemic disaster.
Diseases able to change civilization likely to spread through airborne route.
Researchers started without any preconceived notions of the most likely culprit.
Likely to be contagious during the “incubation period,” before symptoms show.
It would have a “low but significant” fatality rate.
1918 Spanish flu had a fatality rate of just 2.5 percent, but killed 50 million.

Pop up vaccine factories could curb pandemics – The Ecologist – 10-May-2018
Big pharma is unwilling to invest in pandemic prevention.
New model could identify and test vaccines at a quicker rate.
Potentially distribute them within weeks.
Model funded by Future Vaccine Manufacturing Hub.
Looking at novel kinds of processing equipment and supply chain strategies.

Influenza pandemic could infect 43 million in UK – Cambridge Independent – 15-Apr-2018
Influenza pandemic could kill almost a million people in the UK.
How people move and interact affects how a virus will actually spread.
Models designed by University of Cambridge for citizen science project.
30,000 volunteers tracked via their phone for 24 hours.
BBC Pandemic app recorded who they came into close contact.
Data used to work out how fast a new flu epidemic might spread

How to avoid catching a virus on a plane – Science Mag – 19-Mar-2018
Study provides blueprint for how a virus could move around a plane.
Human movement spreads more germs through cabin than the plane’s recirculated air.
Window seats were the most isolated from contact with other passengers.
Low the risk of infection unless you’re sitting very close to a sick individual.
In 1977 38 of 54 passengers and crew contracted an influenzalike illness.

Disease X Could One Day Kill Millions – Newsweek – 11-Mar-2018
Disease X has been added to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) list of maladies.
Could cause a worldwide epidemic-even though it doesn’t actually exist yet.
Represent a “known unknown” that could be created by biological mutation.
Blueprint list identifies diseases with epidemic potential and limited countermeasures.

Lassa fever: The killer disease with no vaccine – BBC News – 5-Mar-2018
Nigeria has been gripped by an outbreak of a Lassa fever.
Current outbreak is spreading faster and further than ever before.
Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever and is difficult to treat.
Currently no vaccine exists.
Most people who catch Lassa will have only mild symptoms.
But has a fatality rate of about one per cent.
People should wear protective gloves when caring Lassa fever patients.

Hunting Unknown Viruses To Prevent Next Pandemic – Futurism – 23-Feb-2018
Scientists estimate still 1.6 million viruses to discover.
Half of those could infect and cause illnesses in humans.
$1.2 bn global cooperative has set out to identify zoonotic threats.
It is time to move from reactionary mode to a proactive one.

First ever human case of H7N4 bird flu – The Guardian – 15-Feb-2018
68-year-old woman from eastern China developed symptoms on 25 December.
Admitted to hospital but has since fully recovered.
Confirmed as the first ever human case of H7N4 bird flu.
She had contact with live poultry before the onset of symptoms.
There are nine known subtypes of H7 viruses.
Hong Kong advises avoiding wet markets, live poultry markets and farms.

Experimental Drug Kills Flu Virus in a Single Day – Science Alert – 13-Feb-2018
Shionogi claims its influenza virus treatment is faster-acting than any other flu drug.
One dose of baloxavir marboxil effectively kills the virus within a single day.
Overall time to alleviate symptoms was similar to other anti-virals.
But faster relief might curb the virus’s contagiousness.
Oral drug works by preventing cells’ susceptibility to virus infection.
Phase 3 clinical trial completed in 2017.
Expecting approval in Japan this year, and US next year.

Infectious disease outbreak could kill 30 million people in a year – Business Insider – 2-Feb-2018
Global Health Security Agenda program is coming ot an end.
Bill Gates has described an emergent infectious disease as among the greatest threats humanity faces at the moment.
Epidemiologists say a fast-moving airborne pathogen could kill more than 30 million people in less than a year.
The risk of a global pandemic hasn’t fallen over the past five years.

Google invests in UK company developing universal flu vaccine – Independent – 15-Jan-2018
Vaccitech has raised £20m from investors including Google parent Alphabet.
Running clinical studies on an experimental shot to prevent Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers).
Vaccine works by using proteins found in the core of the virus rather than those on its surface.
Also stimulates T-cells rather than antibodies.
First time a universal flu vaccine has progressed beyond phase one clinical testing.
Also studying therapeutic prostate cancer vaccine for use with an immunotherapy drug.
Vaccitech is a spin-out founded by scientists at Oxford University’s Jenner Institute.

What is ‘Aussie’ flu and should we be worried? – BBC News – 8-Jan-2018
Aussie flu or H3N2 is an influenza A virus that appears to cause more severe infections in young children and the elderly.
Flu symptoms come on very quickly and can include: fever (temperature above 38C), aches, exhaustion, dry cough, sore throat, tummy pain or diarrhoea etc.
Most people will recover in about a week and won’t need any specific treatment, apart from a bit of bed rest, some paracetamol or ibuprofen and drinking plenty of fluids.
But it could be deadly for the very old, very young or people with pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease.

New DNA vaccine could lead to a universal vaccine for the flu – Digital Trends – 2-Jan-2018
Flu virus continually shape-shifts from year to year.
Current flu vaccine is an inactivated virus based on a prediction of what next year’s flu virus is going to look like.
DNA vaccines inject a genetic code for proteins from the virus into our own cells.
Our cells then produce the viral proteins, antigens, that make the immune response.
Successfully tested in monkeys in a situation similar to the 2009 influenza pandemic.
First universal vaccine will come to market in 5 to 10 years.

The Virus That Conquered the World, 100 Years Later – Infection Control Today – 20-Dec-2017
Called “La grippe,” “three-day fever” and the “Spanish flu,” the influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 ravaged communities worldwide.
Nearly 100 years later, the threat of another influenza pandemic looms large as the scientific and global health communities find ways to prepare for, and battle, future outbreaks.
According to Brad Spellberg Influenza mutates annually and the real problem that leads to a pandemic is a major ‘antigenic shift,’ which takes place when several different viruses infect the same cell and recombine, creating a Frankenstein-like virus.
When these happen, people have no memory immunity to the new virus, meaning that their immune systems aren’t able to react swiftly to fight the virus

US lifts ban on risky pathogen research – Nature – 19-Dec-2017
The US government has lifted its controversial ban on funding experiments that make certain pathogens more deadly or transmissible.
The goal is to standardize “a rigorous process that we really want to be sure we’re doing right”, NIH director Francis Collins told reporters.

H7N9 Influenza Could Be The Next Big Flu Pandemic – Science Trends – 20-Oct-2017
H7N9 is an avian flu that was discovered in China in 2013. Since its discovery, there have been multiple waves of infections in humans and in 2016 the infection rate started to increase much more than before. Of the infected, 40% has died.
Researchers from The University of Tokyo found that the virus is spreading not only from poultry to humans but also human to humans, albeit at a slow pace.
This allows influenza to develop more mutations and it could be the key to becoming pandemic.

Can We Stop A Global Pandemic? – Forbes – 19-Oct-2017
Having killed at least 74 people in the last few weeks, the plague ravaging Madagascar has just jumped across the border and off the island.
Making the situation only more critical is the lack of new drugs in development to combat growing antimicrobial resistance (AMR).
It is estimated that at least 700,000 people die worldwide every year from infections that no longer respond to antibiotics.
In a worst-case scenario, AMR could cause 10 million deaths each year by 2050 — more than cancer.

Shortage Could Leave U.S. With Deadly Flu Pandemic – Newsweek – 12-Oct-2017
United States relies on foreign trade for many medical needs. About 30 essential items, these include hospital supplies like IV bags and everyday drugs, are made outside of the U.S.
A pandemic in India or China could keep people home from work, which would impact manufacturing.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy asserts:
“If anything happens to disrupt the supply, we wouldn’t have any of it. We would suddenly see a tremendous amount of collateral damage.”

BBC app to investigate how flu pandemic spreads – BBC News – 27-Sep-2017
The free app will anonymously collect vital data on how far users travel over a 24 hour period.
Users will be asked for information about the number of people they have come into contact with during this time.
This data will be used to simulate the spread of a highly infectious disease to see what might happen when – not if – a real pandemic hits the UK.
The results of the experiment will be revealed in a 90 minute landmark documentary, BBC Pandemic which will air in spring 2018 on BBC.

Bill Gates thinks a pandemic could kill 30 million people – Business Insider – 17-Sep-2017
Bill and Melinda Gates in their recently released “Goalkeepers” report state that they see a pandemic as the greatest immediate threat to humanity on the planet.
They are sure that in upcoming decades fast-moving airborne pathogen could kill more than 30 million people in less than a year.
It’s possible that a major outbreak could be intentionally created as the result of a biological weapon or it can occur by a quirk of nature.

Still Vulnerable 100 Years after Lethal 1918 Flu Pandemic – Scientific American – 15-Sep-2017
The 1918 influenza pandemic: the most devastating infectious disease in history took 50 million to 100 million lifes worldwide. Despite the progress of modern medicine we do not have such vaccines, which would be effective against a 1918-like virus. The three recent influenza pandemics in 1957, 1968 and 2009 remind us that new pandemics are inevitable, and that current seasonal vaccines are unlikely to prevent or significantly control them.

Three Mutations Could Turn Bird Flu Virus Into A Human Pandemic – IFL Science – 26-Jun-17
H7N9 strain has infected over 900 people since 2013.
Small mutations in three amino acids found on the flu virus surface would make it better at binding to human cells.
US safety regulations prohibit introducing these mutations to actual H7N9 viruses.

Bill Gates warns tens of millions could be killed by bio-terrorism – Guardian – 18-Feb-2017
The next epidemic could be a genetically engineered version of the smallpox virus or a deadly strain of the flu.
Epidemiologists say a fast-moving airborne pathogen could kill more than 30 million people in less than a year.
Reasonable probability the world will experience such an outbreak in the next 10 to 15 years.
71% of Britons are more concerned about the spread of infectious diseases than war with other nations.

We are vulnerable to flu epidemic in next decade – BBC – 30-Dec-2016
Bill Gates says the world is a bit vulnerable right now.
Ebola and Zika crises showed the systems for responding to emergencies are still not strong enough.
Dame Sally Davies (Chief Medical Officer for England): It would take at least six months from the start of a flu pandemic to get an effective vaccine.

First flu affects lifetime risk – BBC – 11-Nov-2016
Research finds there are only two types of hemagglutinin protein on surface of influenza A virus.
Chances of falling ill from a new strain of flu are at least partly determined by the first strain they ever encountered.
75% protection rate against severe disease if patient exposed to a virus with the same protein motif when they were a child.
The first time a person’s immune system encounters a flu virus, it makes antibodies targeting hemagglutinin .
Could explain why some flu outbreaks cause more deaths and serious illnesses in younger people.

UK is ‘vulnerable’ to next Ebola outbreak – BBC News – 25-Jan-2016
Science and Technology Committee says gaping hole in the country’s ability to manufacture vaccines.
UK lacks the capability to vaccinate UK citizens in an emergency.
Government’s response to Ebola outbreak was “undermined by systematic delay”.
Prof Adrian Hill calls it a “national security issue”.

Dog infects four humans with the plague, may involve human-to-human transmission – The Independent – 1-May-15
8 cases of the plague in humans each year on average but is currently treatable with antibiotics.

‘Mystery disease’ kills 18 in Nigeria – BBC News – 18-Apr-15

India swine flu outbreak ‘kills 75’ – BBC News – 28-Jan-15
The H1N1 virus, which causes swine flu, first appeared in Mexico in 2009 and rapidly spread around the world.

Studying Epidemics in Virtual Worlds – Bloomberg – 6-May-2009
1.3 million virtual residents represented by digital characters ran through 15 scenarios, with a variety of government reactions. Tracks the spread of diseases in virtual worlds to help predict what will happen in the real world.

Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable – Imperial College – 27-Feb-2004
Two  simple public health measures in controlling outbreaks are isolating symptomatic individuals and tracing/quarantining their contacts.


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